Financial Modelling Analysis for Agroforestry Project for Leading TelCo
Client Challenge
A telecommunications company worked with OnePointFive to evaluate the commercial viability of an agroforestry carbon removal partnership with another firm. As nature-based solutions gain more traction within voluntary carbon markets, this company wanted a data-informed partnership strategy that considered the impact of different partnership terms, revenue streams, and climate risks.
OPF’s Solution
Discovery & partnership value assessment
OnePointFive began with targeted interviews with the Environmental Solutions and Finance teams to understand the partnership model, map the partnership and financial value, and assess potential carbon credit integrity across parameters such as additionality and permanence.
Scenario-based financial modeling
We built a dynamic financial model to compare metrics across 5 distinct scenarios, including a natural disaster scenario, allowing the company to evaluate potential partnership outcomes. The model incorporated assumptions on:
Revenue streams and expense forecasts
Growth rates, tree planting, and mortality rates
Carbon credits and voluntary offset market values
Analysis uses simplified and anonymized outputs from financial modeling to illustrate potential partnership value (content has been modified, anonymized, or abstracted to protect sensitive information and ensure client confidentiality.)
Expert insights to inform credible growth assumptions
To ensure realistic financial projections, we collaborated with a forestry carbon expert from OnePointFive’s expert network, who provided inputs and benchmarks on key tree modeling assumptions, including tree growth rates, to integrate into our model.
Key Outcomes
Output is illustrative and designed to support strategic decision-making under different conditions (content has been modified, anonymized, or abstracted to protect sensitive information and ensure client confidentiality.)
✅ Delivered an integrated financial model combining environmental and financial data for commercial negotiations and decision-making.
✅ Modeled a 5-year valuation of the agroforestry project, highlighting multiple revenue and cost projections, including a climate risk impact to carbon assets.
✅ Estimated valuation ranges based on revenue multiples of comparable agroforestry ventures.
✅ Built an interactive dashboard for real-time scenario analysis on revenue share, unit pricing, and ROI scenarios.
